四川盆地柑橘干旱特征及致灾危险性评估

Drought Characteristics and Disaster-Inducing Hazard Assessment of Citrus in the Sichuan Basin

  • 摘要: 基于1971—2023年四川盆地69个气象站逐日气象观测资料,计算柑橘生长季逐旬有效降水量、需水量和作物水分亏缺指数(Crop Water Deficit Index,CWDI),分析柑橘不同生长发育期的干旱特征和致灾危险性。结果表明:(1)柑橘生长季里,CWDI呈“单峰型”变化,高峰时段在7月下旬—8月下旬,21世纪以来的柑橘关键生长发育期CWDI呈增加趋势。(2)柑橘干旱以轻旱为主、中旱次之,重旱不明显。(3)果实生长发育期干旱频率盆地中东部高、西部低,其它生长发育期盆地西部高、其余地区低。(4)柑橘干旱危险性与干旱频率的分布较为一致,果实生长发育期的高危险区和较高危险区占研究区面积的57%,其它生长发育期的高危险区和较高危险区仅占17%。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily meteorological observation data from 69 meteorological stations in the Sichuan Basin from 1971 to 2023, this study calculated the ten-day effective precipitation, crop water demand, and Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) during the citrus growing season, and analyzed the drought characteristics and drought-induced hazard risk of citrus at different growth and development stages. The results showed that: (1) During the citrus growing season, CWDI exhibited a unimodal variation, peaking from late July to late August. Since the 21st century, CWDI has shown an increasing trend during the critical growth and development period of citrus. (2) Citrus drought events were dominated by mild drought, followed by moderate drought, while severe drought was insignificant. (3) The frequency of drought during the fruit growth and development period was higher in the central and eastern parts of the basin and lower in the western basin. During other growth and development periods, drought frequency was higher in the western basin than that in other regions. (4) The spatial distribution of drought hazard was basically consistent with that of drought frequency. The high and sub-high drought hazard areas during fruit growth and development periods accounted for 57% of the total study area, while the corresponding proportion during other growth and development periods was only 17%.

     

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