川西高原甘孜州短时强降水天气分型、概念模型及物理量特征

Weather Pattern Classification, Conceptual Model and Physical Characteristics of Short-duration Heavy Rainfall in Ganzi Prefecture, Western Sichuan Plateau

  • 摘要: 为提高青藏高原东部川西高原甘孜州短时强降水过程的预报能力,利用2012—2021年汛期(4—10月)甘孜州18个基准(基本)气象站和489个区域气象站逐小时降水观测资料、中国气象局MICAPS常规高空观测资料及ERA5逐小时0.25°×0.25°分辨率再分析资料,分析川西高原甘孜州汛期短时强降水的天气分型、环流特征、概念模型及物理量特征。结果表明:(1)甘孜州短时强降水典型天气分型主要为槽尾切变型和切变线型;两种分型的高层均受南亚高压控制,中层T−Td均小于3 ℃;槽尾切变型为贝湖低槽或东北低槽尾部切变线影响甘孜州中部,副高位于110°E附近;而切变线型主要受高原切变线影响,位置摆动明显,副高位于105°E附近。(2)天气尺度系统有利时,甘孜州短时强降水过程的物理量指标具有典型特征。槽尾切变型和切变线型500 hPa甘孜站T−Td均小于2 ℃,500 hPa温江站均为西南风,700 hPa西昌站均为南风且比湿均大于12 g/kg;500 hPa甘孜站槽尾切变型为北风,切变线型为西北风;850 hPa温江站槽尾切变型为东北风且比湿大于15 g/kg,切变线型为东北风、东南风且比湿大于16 g/kg。(3)低层水汽通道的建立和水汽的汇合有利于甘孜州短时强降水的产生;槽尾切变型和切变线型的对流层中低层均有正相对涡度和垂直上升运动配合,假相当位温垂直递减率大;与切变线型相比,槽尾切变型的上升运动偏弱且水汽条件更好,雅安地区低层东风明显与地形正交强迫抬升。

     

    Abstract: To improve the forecasting capability for short-duration heavy rainfall processes in Ganzi Prefecture of the Western Sichuan Plateau on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, this study uses hourly precipitation observation data from 18 benchmark (basic) meteorological stations and 489 regional meteorological stations in Ganzi Prefecture. Datasets cover the flood season (April–October) of 2012—2021, alongside conventional MICAPS upper-air soundings from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and hourly ERA5 reanalysis data at a horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. This study investigates the synoptic classification, circulation characteristics, conceptual models, and physical environmental parameters of short-duration heavy rainfall during the flood season in Ganzi Prefecture, Western Sichuan Plateau. The results show that: (1) The trough-tail shear type and plateau shear line type are the dominant synoptic patterns for short-duration heavy rainfall in Ganzi Prefecture. The upper levels of both types are influenced by the South Asian High, and the mid-level T-Td is less than 3℃. For the trough-tail shear type, the tail shear line of the Lake Baikal low trough or the northeast low trough affects central Ganzi Prefecture, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High is located near 110°E. In contrast, the shear line type is mainly affected by the oscillatory plateau shear line, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High is located near 105°E. (2) Under favorable synoptic-scale circulation, physical environmental parameters corresponding to local short-duration heavy rainfall present distinct characteristics. For both types, the 500 hPa T-Td at Ganzi station is below 2°C, the 500 hPa wind at Wenjiang station is southwesterly, and the 700 hPa wind at Xichang station is southerly with specific humidity exceeding 12 g/kg. At 500 hPa, Ganzi Station features northerly winds for the trough-tail shear type and northwesterly winds for the shear line type. At 850 hPa, Wenjiang Station exhibits northeasterly winds with specific humidity exceeding 15 g/kg for the trough-tail shear type, while for the shear line type, the station has northeasterly or southeasterly winds with specific humidity exceeding 16 g/kg. (3) The establishment of low-level water vapor transport channels and water vapor convergence are conducive to the generation of short-duration heavy rainfall in Ganzi Prefecture. Both types are accompanied by positive relative vorticity and vertical upward motion in the mid-to-lower troposphere, as well as a large vertical gradient of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature. Compared with the shear line type, the trough-tail shear type has weaker upward motion but sufficient water vapor supply, and the low-level easterly winds over Ya'an are clearly orthogonal to the local terrain, triggering obvious terrain-forced lifting.

     

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