近20 a成都区域性暴雨分布特征及分型预报着眼点

Distribution Characteristics and Classification Forecasting of Regional Rainstorms in Chengdu Over the Past 20 Years

  • 摘要: 本文利用2004—2023年成都地区14个国家站、466个区域自动站雨量和MICAPS、ERA5资料,在分析成都区域性暴雨分布和年、月际变化特征的基础上,结合成都市地形地貌对暴雨发生的环流特征进行分型,并归纳了相应概念模型和预报着眼点。结果表明:(1)成都区域性暴雨分布与地形密切相关,暴雨频次自西向东逐渐减少,西部型暴雨年平均2.5次,中部型暴雨年平均1.8次,东部型暴雨年平均不足1次。(2)近20 a成都共计出现111次区域性暴雨,2013年、2018年区域性暴雨频次最高且均为12次,区域性暴雨主要出现在7月和8月。(3)西部型暴雨占总暴雨数的49%,中部型暴雨占总暴雨数的35%,东部型暴雨占比仅为16%,不到总暴雨数的五分之一。(4)暴雨环流型可分为东高西低型、两槽一脊型、副高边缘型、两高切变型和西北气流型共5类,其中,东高西低型占比(44%)最多,两槽一脊型次之,副高边缘型再次,两高切变型和西北气流型最少。(5)基于各分区分型暴雨中的500 hPa槽脊(低涡)位置、700 hPa低空切变线走向、西南急流强度、西南涡活动和水汽输送轴位置,以及850 hPa风场辐合位置、高湿区、地形影响等不同层次的垂直配置特征,归纳的多层系统配置概念模型和预报着眼点可为暴雨落区预报提供关键诊断指标,对成都区域性暴雨预报有一定的参考作用。

     

    Abstract: Using rainfall data from 14 national meteorological stations and 466 regional automatic weather stations in Chengdu, together with MICAPS and ERA5 reanalysis data from 2004 to 2023, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution as well as interannual and monthly variations of regional rainstorms in Chengdu. By integrating topographic features, this study classifies the circulation patterns associated with rainstorms, and establishes the corresponding conceptual models and forecasting focus. The results show that: (1) Rainstorm frequency exhibits strong topographic dependence, decreasing from west to east. Western-type rainstorms occur 2.5 times per year on average, central-type 1.8 times per year, and eastern-type fewer than one time per year. (2) A total of 111 regional rainstorms occurred in Chengdu over the past 20 years, peaking in 2013 and 2018 (12 events respectively), with most events concentrated in July and August. (3) Western-type rainstorms account for 49% of the total, central-type for 35%, and eastern-type for only 16%, less than one-fifth of the total. (4) Regional rainstorms are classified into five types: the east-high and west-low type, the two-trough and one-ridge type, the subtropical high-edge type, the two-high shear line type, and the northwest flow type. Among them, the east-high and west-low type occurs most frequently, accounting for 44%, followed by the two-trough and one-ridge type, and then the subtropical high edge type. The two-high shear line type and the northwest flow type have the lowest occurrence frequency.(5) Based on the vertical configuration characteristics at different levels, including the positions of 500 hPa troughs, ridges and low vortices, the orientation of the 700 hPa low-level shear line, the intensity of the southwesterly jet, the southwest vortex activity, moisture transport axes, as well as the 850 hPa wind convergence zone, high-humidity zones and topographic effects, this study summarizes multi-system integrated conceptual models and clarifies corresponding forecasting focuses. These models provide key diagnostic indicators for rainstorm spatial forecasting and offer valuable references for operational prediction of regional rainstorms in Chengdu.

     

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