青藏高原东侧边坡—盆地对流初生时空分布与降水特征

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Convective Initiation and Associated Precipitation Characteristics on the Eastern Slope and Basin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

  • 摘要: 青藏高原东侧倾斜边坡与四川盆地(高原东侧边坡-盆地)构成的复杂地形区,是大气对流初生(Convective Initiation,CI)频发的关键区域之一。本文基于2024—2025年4—9月高时空分辨率雷达组合反射率与地面降水观测资料,采用面向目标的面积重叠法,提出一个客观识别CI事件的方法,对青藏高原东侧边坡-盆地区域进行了统计分析,并区分降水型与非降水型CI,系统揭示其时空分布特征及降水转化特性。结果表明:(1)研究时段,共识别高原东侧边坡-盆地CI事件666715次,平均每天发生3643次,其对流初生活动高度频繁;日变化呈双峰型,主峰在凌晨至清晨(北京时04:00—09:00),次峰在傍晚至晚上(北京时18:00—21:00),分别对应动力抬升与热力强迫主导机制;春季(4月)单峰型转为暖季(5—9月)双峰型,体现了季节转换对CI触发机制的调控作用。(2)高原东侧边坡-盆地CI空间分布与地形及大尺度环流紧密耦合,高发区沿高原向盆地过渡陡峭地形区呈带状分布,并随季节变化,春季在盆地南部呈“南强北弱”型,夏季与西太平洋副热带高压西边界吻合,秋季随副高东退其高发带东移并减弱。(3)高原东侧边坡-盆地CI降水率较高,各月均超过70%,9月(华西秋雨期)最高(94%),8月最低(约72%);降水型CI的尺度呈单峰分布,峰值位于8个格点(约64 km2)附近,55%集中于4~13个格点的适中尺度区间。研究成果阐明了青藏高原东侧倾斜边坡-四川盆地区域CI活动受地形、热力与环流共同调控,具有高发、季节迁移和高降水转化率等基本特征,为改进区域对流参数化方案与优化监测预警指标,增强青藏高原东侧短临强降水预警能力提供了科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: The complex terrain area formed by the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the Sichuan Basin is one of the key regions with frequent convective initiation (CI). Based on high spatiotemporal resolution radar composite reflectivity and ground precipitation observation data from April to September of 2024—2025, this study proposes an objective method for identifying CI events using a target-oriented area overlap method. We conduct statistical analysis of the eastern plateau slope and the Sichuan Basin, classify CI events into precipitation-producing and non-precipitation types, and systematically reveal their spatiotemporal distribution and precipitation conversion features. The results show that: (1) During the study period, a total of 666,715 CI events over the study area were identified, with an average of 3643 events per day, indicating extremely active CI activities. The diurnal variation presented a bimodal pattern, with the main peak occurring from early morning to dawn (04:00—09:00 Beijing Time), and the secondary peak occurring from evening to night ( 18:00—21:00 Beijing Time), corresponding to the dominant mechanisms of dynamic lifting and thermal forcing. In spring (April), the single peak type changed to a bimodal type in the warm season (May–September), reflecting the regulatory effect of seasonal transitions on the CI triggering mechanisms. (2) The spatial distribution of CI is closely coupled with the terrain and large-scale circulation. High-occurrence zones are distributed in a belt along the steep terrain transition from the plateau to the basin, and their spatial patterns vary with seasons. In spring, the pattern is "strong in the south and weak in the north" in the southern basin. In summer, it coincides with the western boundary of the Western Pacific Subtropical High. In autumn, with the eastward retreat of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, these high-occurrence zones shift eastward with weakened frequency. (3) The precipitation probability of CI on the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the Sichuan Basin was relatively high, exceeding 70% in all months. The highest precipitation probability (94%) occurred in September (West China Autumn Rain period), and the lowest (approximately 72%) in August. The size of precipitation-type CI showed a unimodal distribution, with the peak located near 8 grid points (approximately 64 km²) and 55% of events concentrated in the moderate-size range of 4 to 13 grid points. The research results clarify that CI activities over the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the Sichuan Basin are jointly modulated by terrain, thermal conditions, and circulation, characterized by high occurrence frequency, seasonal migration, and a high precipitation conversion probability. These findings provide scientific support for improving regional convective parameterization schemes and optimizing monitoring and warning thresholds, thereby enhancing the warning capability for short-duration heavy precipitation over the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

     

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