中国湿热复合极端事件变化机制及人类活动影响研究进展

Mechanisms and Anthropogenic Drivers of Changing Compound Heat–Humidity Extremes over China

  • 摘要: 复合极端事件是全球变暖背景下呈现出的一种新特征,其叠加效应的影响远大于单一自然灾害,对社会经济、生态环境等构成了严重威胁。随着全球变暖,大气湿度与温度的协同效应在增强,高温高湿复合极端事件发生概率显著增加,导致人群暴露于湿热环境的风险加大,进而威胁人体健康安全。本文主要总结和回顾了国内外关于中国区域高温高湿复合极端事件变化的物理机制及人类活动影响的最新研究进展。指出了近年来中国东部夏季高温高湿复合极端事件由南方地区向北扩张的事实,梳理了季节内振荡、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、北大西洋涛动、北极海冰、西太平洋和热带印度洋海温、大西洋多年代际振荡等气候系统异常对东部地区夏季湿热复合事件多尺度变化的影响过程,强调了人类活动对其变化的贡献。在此基础上,进一步强调了未来亟需拓展的几个方向,以及借助大数据分析、人工智能等新兴技术,构建融合物理机制的湿热复合极端事件预报预测模型,进而提升其准确性。

     

    Abstract: Compound extreme events are a new characteristic emerging under global warming, of which the combined impacts far exceed those of individual natural disasters, posing severe threats to socio-economic systems and ecological environments. With global warming, the synergistic effect between atmospheric moisture and temperature is intensifying, leading to a significant increase in the probability of compound heat-humidity extremes. This amplifies population exposure to hot and humid conditions and endangers human health. This paper aims to summarize and review recent domestic and international research on the mechanisms of change in compound heat-humidity extreme events over China and the influence of anthropogenic activities. It highlights the observed northward expansion of summer compound heat-humidity extremes in eastern China in recent years. It synthesizes the roles of intraseasonal oscillations, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic sea ice, sea surface temperatures over the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in modulating these events at multiple scales, and emphasizes the contribution of anthropogenic activities. Finally, the paper proposes several key directions for future research, including the integration of big data analytics and artificial intelligence to develop physically informed prediction models for compound heat-humidity extremes, thereby improving prediction accuracy.

     

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