西藏植被生长季饱和水汽差时空分异特征及归因分析

Spatio-temporal Variation and Attribution of Vapor Pressure Deficit during the Vegetation Growing Season in Xizang

  • 摘要: 基于1981—2023年西藏地区38个气象站点逐月气象观测资料,以及大气环流、太阳黑子和海温等指数,采用Pearson相关系数、线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验和逐步回归等方法,分析近43 a西藏植被生长季饱和水汽压差(Vapor Pressure Deficit,VPD)时空变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:(1)多年平均生长季VPD在空间上以95°E为界,总体呈95°E以西自东向西递增、95°E以东以八宿为中心向四周递减的分布特征;在海拔3300 m以上(下)地区,VPD随海拔高度升高(下降)而减小(增大)。(2)近43 a西藏平均生长季VPD以0.028 kPa/10 a的速度呈显著增大趋势,主要表现在8月和9月,且在2005年发生突变;所有站点中,VPD呈显著增大趋势的占比为79%。(3)VPD在20世纪80和90年代均偏低,以90年代最明显;21世纪前10年略偏高,21世纪10年代明显偏高。(4)气温升高是生长季VPD增大的主导气象因子,西太平洋副高面积指数、印度洋暖池面积指数增大分别是VPD升高的主导环流因子和海温因子。此外,太阳黑子与VPD呈显著的负相关关系。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly meteorological observation data from 38 meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2023, as well as the indices of atmospheric circulation, sunspots and sea surface temperature (SST), the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during the vegetation growing season in Xizang over the past 43 years were analyzed by Pearson correlation coefficient, linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall method and stepwise regression method. The results show that: (1) Spatially, the multi-year average growing season VPD is bounded approximately by 95°E, with values generally increasing from east to west of 95°E, and decreasing radially outward from Baxoi as the center east of 95°E. VPD decreased (increased) with the increase (decrease) of altitude above (below) 3300 m. (2) Over the past 43 years, the average growing season VPD in Xizang showed a significant increasing trend, with a rate of 0.028 kPa/decade, mainly in August and September. The mutation occurred in 2005. Among all stations, 79% of the meteorological stations showed a significant increasing trend in VPD. (3) VPD was lower in the 1980s and 1990s, especially in the 1990s. It was slightly higher in the 2000s and significantly higher in the 2010s. (4) Temperature warming was the dominant meteorological factor for the increase in growing season VPD, and the increase of the Western Pacific subtropical high area index and the Indian Ocean warm pool area index were the dominant circulation factor and the dominant SST factor, respectively. In addition, sunspots were significantly negatively correlated with VPD.

     

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