闪电活动在四川盆地极端短时强降水中的先兆性特征

Precursory Characteristics of Lightning Activity in Extreme Short-duration Heavy Rainfall over Sichuan Basin

  • 摘要: 本文基于2018—2023年四川省闪电定位资料、自动站小时和分钟降水资料,对闪电活动在极端短时强降水中的超前时间特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)正地闪在超前降水峰值方面占据主导地位,其平均强度峰值和频次峰值的超前占比分别为49.4%和43.0%,且平均强度峰值的超前平均时间最长(16.7 min);负地闪频次和强度峰值的超前占比也较高,分别为36.0%和33.3%。(2)正、负地闪频次超前时间主要集中在10~20 min;正地闪强度峰值普遍超前降水峰值10~30 min,最大可达50 min,且超前30 min时强度最强,随着超前时间增加,降水峰值递减;负地闪平均强度整体低于正地闪,但10~20 min内最大峰值与正地闪相当。(3)四川盆地西部正、负地闪频次超前时间普遍大于10 min,东北部正地闪超前时间较少;正地闪强度峰值在盆地大部分区域超前时间达10 min以上,部分区域达40~50 min;负地闪强度超前时间在盆地北部较为集中,达20~30 min。

     

    Abstract: Based on lightning location data and hourly and minute-level precipitation data from automatic weather stations in Sichuan Province from 2018 to 2023, the lead time of lightning activity characteristics in extreme short-term heavy precipitation was analyzed. The results show that: (1) Positive cloud-to-ground (PCG) lightning dominated in leading precipitation peaks, with the leading proportions of its average intensity peak and frequency peak being 49.4% and 43.0%, respectively. The average lead time of the intensity peak was the longest (16.7 minutes). The leading proportions of negative cloud-to-ground (NCG) lightning frequency and intensity peaks were also significant, at 36.0% and 33.3%, respectively. (2) The lead times of both PCG and NCG lightning frequencies were mainly concentrated within 10—20 minutes, while the intensity peak of PCG lightning generally led precipitation peaks by 10—30 minutes, with a maximum lead time of 50 minutes. The intensity was strongest at a 30-minute lead time, and the corresponding precipitation peak decreased as the lead time increased. The average intensity of NCG lightning is generally lower than that of PCG lightning, but its maximum peak intensity within 10—20 minutes was close to that of PCG lightning. (3) In the western Sichuan Basin, the lead times of both PCG and NCG lightning frequencies generally exceed 10 minutes, while the lead time of PCG lightning in the northeastern part was relatively short. The intensity peak of PCG lightning led precipitation peaks by more than 10 minutes in most areas of the basin, with some regions reaching 40—50 minutes. The lead time of NCG lightning intensity was more concentrated in the northern part of the basin, reaching 20—30 minutes.

     

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