2022年异常高温干旱下岷江流域流量减少的成因分析

Cause Analysis of Discharge Reduction in the Minjiang River Basin under the Anomalous High Temperature and Drought in 2022

  • 摘要: 利用凤仪、姜射坝、威州、杂谷脑、沙坝等五站水文监测资料和气象观测资料,结合欧洲中心提供的逐日位势高度场、风场等ERA5再分析资料,对比分析2020年8月和2022年8月之间的岷江流域流量差异,并从天气学角度探究2022年异常高温天气下岷江流域流量减少的成因。结果表明:(1)岷江流域流量减少与降水之间存在联系,两者均在2022年8月表现出异常偏少。(2)2022年8月,西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏北,岷江流域明显地受到西太平洋副高的控制,不利于降水的产生。(3)2022年8月,850 hPa风场中岷江流域受到西南风影响较常年偏弱;水汽输送上,来自孟加拉湾的西南水汽输送明显减弱,且在整层水汽通量散度上无水汽辐合,使得岷江流域水汽条件较常年明显变差。(4)Rossby波能量向我国中低纬地区频散,使得西太副高西伸发展控制四川地区,致使2022年8月岷江流域降水偏少。

     

    Abstract: Based on hydrological and meteorological data from Fengyi, Jiangsheba, Weizhou, Zagunao and Shaba stations, combined with ERA5 reanalysis data such as the daily geopotential and wind field provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the causes of discharge reduction in the Minjiang River Basin under the anomalous high temperature in August 2022 were explored from a synoptic perspective by comparing the discharge differences between August 2020 and August 2022. The results showed that: (1) The discharge reduction in the Minjiang River Basin was correlated with precipitation, both of which were anomalously low in August 2022. (2) In August 2022, the Western Pacific Subtropical High shifted westward and northward. The Minjiang River Basin was obviously controlled by the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which was not conducive to the production of precipitation. (3) In August 2022, the southwesterly wind at 850 hPa over the Minjiang River Basin was weaker than that in normal years. In terms of water vapor transport, the southwesterly moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal was significantly weakened. Furthermore, there was no water vapor convergence in the whole layer of water vapor flux divergence, which made the water vapor conditions in the Minjiang River Basin significantly worse than normal years. (4) The Rossby wave energy dispersed to the mid-to-low latitudes of China, causing the Western Pacific Subtropical High to extend westward and control the Sichuan region, resulting in reduced precipitation over the Minjiang River Basin in August 2022.

     

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