Abstract:
As the largest river on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is not only the major agricultural production area in Tibet but also the site of a major national water conservancy project. With its complex terrain and diverse climate, it is necessary to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of regional extreme precipitation in the context of global warming, based on daily precipitation data of 16 stations in the Basin from 1981 to 2023. The results show that: (1)Temporally, the extreme precipitation indices showed an increasing trend, except for CWD, which showed a slight decreasing trend. Most of the extreme precipitation indices occurred in 1998, while the minimum values occurred in 1983. (2) Spatially, the absolute indices, relative indices, RX1day, RX5day, CWD and PRCPTOT of extreme precipitation increased from west to east, while the spatial distribution of CDD showed an opposite pattern, and the spatial distribution of SDII was uneven. Extreme precipitation indices at 68.7%~94.0% of stations in the Basin tended to increase, with an uneven spatial distribution. (3) Abrupt changes of R20, R25, R95p, R99p, R95day, R99day, RX1day, RX5day and SDII in the Basin changed from less to more around 2012, while there was no significant abrupt changes of R5, R10, CWD, CDD and PRCPTOT. (4) The extreme precipitation indices in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin showed a main oscillation period of about 24 years during 1981—2023, and a secondary quasi-period of 14 years during 1981—2010. Over the past 43 years, extreme precipitation in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin was mainly short-term heavy precipitation, with an increasing concentration, thereby increasing the risk of extreme events such as floods and droughts.