遂宁市日最大电力负荷分等级预测方法研究

Research on Graded Forecasting Method of the Daily Maximum Electric Load in Suining City

  • 摘要: 利用遂宁市2021—2023年气象和电力负荷数据,从日最大电力负荷中提取气象负荷,分析遂宁气象负荷率与气象要素的相关关系,并采用多元线性回归、逐步回归和BP神经网络三种方法构建了气象负荷率的分等级预报模型。结果表明:包括气温、气压在内的多个气象因子在不同季节对电力负荷有显著影响,尤其在夏季高温和冬季低温期间,气象负荷率和气温的关系呈现出明显的非线性特征;多元线性回归方法在大多数温度区间内提供了最优的预测效果,较符合电力部门的预测要求;此外,在某些温度区间内,BP神经网络方法呈现出更优的预测精度,但存在预测不稳定的问题。

     

    Abstract: Based on meteorological and electricload data of Suining from 2021 to 2023, the meteorological load component was extracted from the daily maximum electrical load, establishing the correlation between meteorological load ratio and meteorological factors in Suining, the graded forecasting models of meteorological load rate were established by stepwise regression, multiple linear regression and BP neural network. The results show that several meteorological factors, including temperature and atmospheric pressure, significantly affect electricity load across different seasons. especially in summer and winter, the relationship between the meteorological load rate and temperature shows obviously nonlinear characteristics. The multiple linear regression method provides the best predictive performance in most temperature ranges, better meeting the forecasting needs of the power department. In certain temperature ranges, the BP neural network method exhibits superior prediction accuracy, however, it suffers from issues of prediction instability.

     

/

返回文章
返回