近30年大渡河流域川西高原段水资源特征

Characteristics of Water Resources in the Western Sichuan Plateau Reach of the Dadu River Basin over the Past 30 Years

  • 摘要: 采用非参数检验Mann-Kendall、线性趋势以及小波方差分析等方法,对1991—2020年大渡河流域川西高原段的降水量和径流量进行分析。结果表明:近30 a大渡河流域川西高原段的年降水量总体呈现上升趋势,变率为29.7 mm/10 a,1997年为突变年,存在8 a左右的主周期;各季节降水量总体呈上升趋势,突变年份存在差异且有一定的周期性;多年、汛期、枯期平均流量均呈平稳上升趋势,丰、平、枯水交替,变差系数CV值下游小于上游,1992年为径流量显著上升突变年份;上、下游径流过程峰谷对应,出现最大、最小径流的时间相同。

     

    Abstract: Using methods such as the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, linear trend analysis, and wavelet variance analysis, the precipitation and runoff in the Western Sichuan Plateau reach of the Dadu River Basin from 1991 to 2020 were analyzed. The results indicate that over the past 30 years, the annual precipitation in the region showed an overall upward trend, with a variation rate of 29.7 mm/10a. The year 1997 was an abrupt change year with the dominant cycle of approximately 8 years. Precipitation in different seasons generally exhibited increasing trends, albeit with differing abrupt change years and certain periodicities. The average streamflow across the annual, flood season, and dry period series all demonstrated a steady upward trend, with alternating wet, normal, and dry years. The coefficient of variation (CV) was lower in the downstream area compared to the upstream. The year 1992 was a significant abrupt change point for a notable increase in runoff. Furthermore, the peaks and troughs of the runoff hydrographs corresponded well between the upstream and downstream sections, with the timing of maximum and minimum runoff occurrences being synchronous.

     

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