达州区域性强降温温度变化及预报指标分析

Analysis of Temperature Variation and Forecast Indicators for Regional Strong Cooling in Dazhou

  • 摘要: 利用1980—2023年达州6个国家站的逐日平均气温及最高、最低气温,对该时段达州区域性强降温天气过程中温度的变化特征进行分析,并结合高空资料对达州1980—2018年区域性强降温个例进行统计,提取出本地强降温预报指标并检验。结果表明:(1)1980—2023年达州区域性强降温过程频次呈增加趋势,增速为0.15次/10 a;强度也呈增强趋势,增速为1.13 ℃/10 a,冬季强度增强趋势比春秋季更明显。(2)强降温过程前夕春秋季平均气温增温比冬季明显;强降温过程中平均最高、最低气温整体均呈增温趋势,最高气温冬季增温明显,最低气温春秋季增温更明显。(3)4个强降温预报指标(过程前达川平均气温、过程前08时达川-哈密700 hPa温差、过程前08时达州-银川700 hPa温差以及过程中20时达川850 hPa降温幅度)对达州区域性强降温的预报效果良好。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures from six national stations in Dazhou from 1980 to 2023, the temperature variation characteristics during regional sharp cooling events in Dazhou were analyzed. Using upper-air data, cases of regional sharp cooling in Dazhou from 1980 to 2018 are statistically examined to extract and validate local forecasting indicators for sharp cooling. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2023, the frequency of regional sharp cooling events in Dazhou exhibited an increasing trend, with a rate of 0.15 events per decade, while the intensity also showed an enhancing trend, at a rate of 1.13 °C per decade. The intensification trend in winter was more pronounced than in spring and autumn. (2) Prior to sharp cooling events, the increase in mean temperature was more noticeable in spring and autumn than in winter. During the cooling events, both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures generally displayed a warming trend, with the maximum temperature rising notably in winter and the minimum temperature increasing more significantly in spring and autumn. (3) Four forecasting indicators demonstrated good performance in predicting regional sharp cooling events in Dazhou, including the average temperature in Dachuan before the cooling event, the 700 hPa temperature difference between Dachuan and Hami at 08:00 before the event, the 700 hPa temperature difference between Dazhou and Yinchuan at 08:00 before the event, and the 850 hPa temperature drop in Dachuan at 20:00 during the event.

     

/

返回文章
返回