南溪区短时强降水气候特征及其影响因子分析

Climate Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Short-term Heavy Rainfall in Nanxi District

  • 摘要: 利用2009—2023年宜宾市南溪区19个代表站点逐小时雨量资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA5再分析资料,对南溪区短时强降水的气候特征及其影响因子进行分析。结果表明:南溪区短时强降水年发生次数总体呈显著增加趋势,大多发生在下午、傍晚至凌晨(14:00—02:00)时段,其东南部和西北部为区域强降雨中心。短时强降雨发生时,大气层结极不稳定(K 指数≥36 ℃)且低层湿度条件充沛(850 hPa比湿均值为16.7 g/kg、相对湿度为84.4%),≥20 mm/h短时强降水出现频次占比(54%)显著高于其他量级;造成该区短时强降水的天气系统主要是低涡切变、四川盆地倒槽与东风波、西太平洋副热带高压及西风槽。

     

    Abstract: Based on hourly rainfall data from 19 representative stations in Nanxi District, Yibin City, and ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) from 2009 to 2023, the climatic characteristics and influencing factors of short-term heavy rainfall in Nanxi District were analyzed. The results show that the annual frequency of short-term heavy rainfall in Nanxi District shows a significant increasing trend overall. Most events occur in the afternoon, evening and early morning (14:00—02:00), with regional heavy rainfall centers located in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the district. During short-term heavy rainfall events, the atmospheric stratification is highly unstable (K-index≥36°C) with ample low-level humidity (mean specific humidity at 850 hPa is 16.7 g/kg, and relative humidity is 84.4%). The frequency of short-term heavy rainfall with intensities ≥ 20 mm/h accounts for 54%, significantly higher than other intensity levels. The main weather systems responsible for short-duration heavy rainfall in this area include vortex shear systems, inverted troughs in the Sichuan Basin and easterly waves, the Western Pacific Subtropical High, and westerly troughs.

     

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