BCC-CSM(m)模拟高原积雪状况评估及其对周围降水的影响

Evaluation of BCC-CSM(m) Simulated Plateau Snow Cover and Its Impact on Surrounding Precipitation

  • 摘要: 利用1970—2015年夏季降水资料和分辨率较高的卫星遥感资料,对BCC-CSM(m)气候系统模式模拟的长序列高原积雪深度资料进行检验,并研究青藏高原积雪的时空演变特征及其对周围地区夏季降水的影响。结果表明:(1)BCC-CSM(m)模式模拟的积雪深度大值区主要分布在高原西部的喜马拉雅山脉和昆仑山脉之间,以喀喇昆仑山脉一带为中心向四周减小。(2)BCC-CSM(m)模式模拟的积雪深度年际变化与观测资料总体相比呈减少趋势。(3)BCC-CSM(m)模式能够较好地模拟出不同季节积雪深度的空间分布变化。(4)高原主体积雪可分为全区多雪型、全区少雪型、北多南少型、北少南多型4种模态。(5)高原冬半年积雪的不同分布模态会导致西南、西北地区次年夏季降水分布出现差异。

     

    Abstract: Using summer precipitation data from 1970 to 2015 and high-resolution satellite remote sensing data, the long-term plateau snow depth data simulated by the BCC-CSM(m) climate system model was evaluated. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on summer precipitation in surrounding areas were also investigated. The results indicate that: (1) The large-value areas of snow depth simulated by the BCC-CSM(m) model are mainly distributed between the Himalayas and the Kunlun Mountains in the western part of the plateau, with a decreasing trend from the Karakoram Mountains to the surrounding areas. (2) The interannual variation of snow depth simulated by the BCC-CSM(m) model shows a decreasing trend compared to observational data. (3) The BCC-CSM(m) model can well simulate the spatial distribution changes of snow depth in different seasons. (4) The snow cover over the main body of the plateau can be divided into four patterns: overall more snow, overall less snow, more snow in the north and less in the south, and less snow in the north and more in the south. (5) Different distribution modes of snow cover in the winter half-year on the plateau cause differences in the distribution of summer precipitation in the southwest and northwest regions.

     

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