突发性局地短时大暴雨过程分析与CMA_3KM数值预报应用

Analysis of a Sudden Localized Short-duration Heavy Rain Event and Application of CMA_3KM Numerical Prediction

  • 摘要: 利用宜宾地区常规观测资料和CMA_3KM、ECMWF、CMA-GFS等数值模式资料,对2022年6月20日典型的突发性局地短时大暴雨过程进行分析,并开展CMA_3KM模式资料应用与订正研究。结果表明:(1)本次天气过程是在盆地南部较为充沛的热力不稳定环境条件和一定的水汽条件下,由高空低槽底部扰动气流形成的低层切变线触发而产生的;(2)因热力不稳定能量储备较为充沛,但切变线强度弱、影响范围小、低空急流未能建立等原因,造成该天气过程具有突发性、高强度、局地性、短历时等特征;(3)此次突发性局地短时大暴雨天气过程中,常用的数值模式资料均未预报出强降水,而CMA_3KM预报效果最好,并且临近时刻起报资料对短时强降水强度和发生时段的预报与实况十分接近,为预报预警工作起到了很好的指示作用;(4)ECWMF低层风场资料与CMA_3KM降水预报资料相结合,可以很好地对强降水落区进行有效订正。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing conventional observation data and numerical model data including CMA_3KM, ECMWF and CMA-GFS, a typical sudden localized short-duration heavy rain event that occurred in Yibin on June 20, 2022, was analyzed, and the application and correction of the CMA_3KM model data was also conducted. The results indicate that: (1) The weather event was triggered by a low-level shear line formed by disturbance flows at the base of an upper-level trough, under relatively abundant thermal instability and certain moisture conditions in the southern basin. (2) Due to sufficient reserves of thermal unstable energy, combined with weak shear line intensity, limited impact area, and the failure to establish a low-level jet, the event showed characteristics of suddenness, high intensity, localization and short duration. (3) During the sudden localized short-duration heavy rain event, commonly used numerical models failed to predict the heavy precipitation. Among them, CMA_3KM demonstrated the best performance, with its short-term forecast data closely matching the actual intensity and timing of the heavy rainfall, providing valuable guidance for forecasting and early warning operations. (4) Combining ECMWF low-level wind field data with CMA_3KM precipitation forecast data effectively improved the correction of the heavy precipitation area.

     

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