Abstract:
Using the SWC-3KM forecasting products, an objective and subjective meteorological analysis and evaluation were conducted on the heavy rainfall events that occurred in Sichuan in 2023. The analysis included precipitation, circulation background, wind fields, and related physical quantities. The results indicate that: (1) The objective precipitation verification showed no advantage for the forecast at 08:00 compared to 20:00 on the previous day. (2) In subjective verification, the precipitation forecast became closer to actual conditions as the forecast period approached. For convective precipitation at the onset of the event, SWC-3KM forecasts were more indicative than other models. For systematic precipitation, the main rainband was close to actual conditions, though the intensity was weaker and the area smaller, with the heavy precipitation center showing a tendency to shift westward and southward. Notable false alarms were observed in the northwestern slope areas of the Basin, the southern Basin, the Panxi region, and Ganzi Prefecture. (3) Wind field verification revealed deviations in both wind speed and direction at mid-low levels, with the direction deviation causing displacement of the heavy precipitation zone and differences in wind speed leading to discrepancies in rainfall intensity.