多源融合产品在陕西不同类型暴雨中的适用性评估

Suitability Assessment of Multi-source Precipitation Analysis Products for Different Types of Rainstorm Processes in Shaanxi

  • 摘要: 本文选取2019—2023年陕西省降水数据和同期中国区域融合降水分析系统(CMA multi-source precipitation analysis system,CMPAS-V2.1)的二源及三源融合降水分析实时产品,在分析陕西省近5 a区域性暴雨时空特征的基础上,采用统计检验方法对融合降水产品的准确性进行评估。结果表明:(1)陕西区域性暴雨主高峰发生在7月中旬—8月上旬,次高峰为8月下旬和9月中旬—10月上旬;降水大值区位于陕北东部、南部以及陕南中西部。(2)融合产品基本能反映降水落区,但强降水落区有所偏差,其均方根误差大值区与强降水落区密切相关;融合产品的误差绝对值随着降水量级增大而增大,但其中小雨数值偏大,其他降水量级数值偏小。(3)低涡型大雨和暴雨、低槽台风型中雨及以上量级的误差明显大于其他类型,应用中需加以订正;大雨和暴雨量级低槽台风型二源产品更优,其他环流型三源产品表现更佳。(4)对比不同地区型,陕北型误差相对较大,全省型误差相对较小;全省型暴雨三源产品优于二源产品,其他类型暴雨的二源产品更佳。

     

    Abstract: Using the precipitation data of Shaanxi Province from 2019 to 2023 and the real-time products of the CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System (CMPAS-V2.1) in the same period, the temporal and spatial characteristics of regional rainstorms in Shaanxi Province over the past five years were analyzed briefly, and the accuracy of the multi-source precipitation products were evaluated with statistical test method. The results show that: (1) The main peak of regional rainstorm occurred from mid-July to early August, and the secondary peak occurred in late August and mid-September to early October. The large precipitation value areas were located in the eastern and southern parts of northern Shaanxi and the central and western parts of southern Shaanxi. (2) Multi-source precipitation products could basically reflect the observed precipitation, but there were deviations in the heavy precipitation region. Areas with high root mean square error were closely related to heavy precipitation zones. The absolute error of multi-source products increased with the increase of precipitation intensity. The light rain value of multi-source product was larger, and the values of other precipitation levels were smaller. (3) The errors of low-vortex type heavy rain and rainstorm, low-trough-typhoon type moderate rain and above were obviously greater than those of other types, which should be corrected in future application. For heavy rain and rainstorm intensities, the two-source products of low-trough-typhoon heavy rain and rainstorm were better, while the three-source products of other circulation types were better. (4) Comparing different regional types, errors were relatively larger for the northern-Shaanxi type and smaller for the province-wide type. For province-wide rainstorms, the three-source product outperformed the two-source product, whereas for other types of rainstorms, the two-source product was more accurate.

     

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