基于自适应阈值的MODE方法对多源卫星降水产品四川强降水个例质量的评估

Evaluation of Multi-Source Satellite Precipitation Products for Heavy Rainfall Cases in Sichuan Using Adaptive-Threshold MODE Method

  • 摘要: 本文选取FY-4B、GPM-Late、MSWEP和PERSIANN-CCS四种卫星降水产品,采用自适应阈值的MODE方法对四川地区6次强降水个例进行评估。结果表明:(1)FY-4B降水强度和面积估计存在明显的高估,在大面积降水情况下,表现出对降水边缘区域的过度扩展,整体呈现偏南的趋势;(2)GPM-Late强度和面积存在一致性低估,但质心位置表现最佳,随着实况面积的增大,质心位置偏差逐渐缩小;(3)MSWEP综合效果最佳,误差波动较为稳定,呈现系统性偏西偏南特征,强度与实况较为接近,质心位置偏差较小;(4)PERSIANN-CCS空间定位能力差,尤其在小面积降水事件中偏差较大,整体强度和面积为高估,在大范围降水中高估程度较为明显;(5)FY-4B和PERSIANN-CCS在大面积降水系统中高估,反映出红外反演方法在捕捉大范围降水系统时易出现空间范围过度扩展的问题;(6)GPM-Late降水强度偏低严重,反映出微波信号容易受复杂下垫面影响。

     

    Abstract: Using the adaptive-threshold MODE method, four satellite precipitation products, FY-4B, GPM-Late, MSWEP, and PERSIANN-CCS, were evaluated for six heavy precipitation cases in the Sichuan region. The results show that: (1) FY-4B significantly overestimates precipitation intensity and area, with an excessive expansion in precipitation margins for large-scale precipitation events and a general southward shift. (2) GPM-Late consistently underestimates intensity and area, but demonstrates the best performance in centroid position. As the observed precipitation area increases, the centroid position bias gradually decreases. (3) MSWEP achieves the best overall performance with relatively stable error fluctuations, showing a systematic west-southward shift, while its intensity closely matches observations and centroid deviations are small. (4) PERSIANN-CCS has poor spatial localization ability, with large deviations in small-scale precipitation events. It generally overestimates intensity and area, with more pronounced overestimation in large-scale precipitation events. (5) FY-4B and PERSIANN-CCS tend to overestimate large-scale precipitation systems, reflecting the tendency of infrared-based retrieval methods to excessively expand the spatial extent of large precipitation systems.(6) GPM-Late shows severe underestimation of precipitation intensity, indicating that microwave signals are easily influenced by complex underlying surfaces.

     

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