2023年6月湖南极端“端午水”成因及模式预报订正分析

Analysis of the Causes and Model Forecast Correction of the Extreme “Dragon Boat Festival Rainfall” in Hunan Province in June 2023

  • 摘要: 本文利用多源资料,从环流背景、环境条件、低涡演变与模式评估等方面,探究了2023年6月16—25日湖南省一次极端暴雨过程(以下简称“端午水”过程)的成因,并对预报偏差进行了订正分析。结果表明:(1)此次“端午水”过程具有显著对流性和移动性特征,多站日雨量创历史极值。(2)阶梯槽东移,低涡活跃且在湖南长时间维持,中尺度对流系统在东段切变线上不断新生、合并发展,形成线状对流系统持续影响湖南,是此次极端“端午水”主要的天气学成因之一。(3)来自孟加拉湾和南海的两条水汽通道叠加传输至低涡南部,近地层大量水汽汇合,是此次极端降水的重要水汽条件。(4)“上层负涡度、下层正涡度”的动力配置促使低涡加强,辐合上升运动对应增强,是主要的动力成因之一。(5)过程前期为暖区降雨,各主流数值模式降水量级预报明显偏强;当环流形势转为低涡类降水时,结合低涡持续时间与水汽动力等因子加强特征,可在模式基础上进行有效订正。

     

    Abstract: Based on multiple sources of data, from the aspects of circulation background, environmental conditions, low-vortex evolution, and model evaluation, the causes of an extreme rainstorm event in Hunan Province occurred from June 16 to 25, 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the “Dragon Boat Festival Rainfall” event) was discussed. Correction analysis was also conducted on forecast deviations. The results show that: (1) The “'Dragon Boat Festival Rainfall” event had significant convective and mobile characteristics, with daily precipitation at multiple stations reaching historical extremes. (2) The key synoptic cause was the persistent influence of multiple mesoscale convective systems, which were fueled by the eastward movement of a ladder trough and a long-maintained, active low-level vortex. The mesoscale convective systems continually initiated, merged, and developed along the eastern segment of the shear line, forming quasi-linear convective systems that persistently affected Hunan. (3) The convergence of two moisture channels from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, which transported moisture to the southern part of the low vortex, combined with substantial near-surface moisture convergence, provided crucial moisture conditions for the extreme precipitation. (4) The dynamic configuration of “negative vorticity in the upper layer and positive vorticity in the lower layer” contributed to the intensification of the low vortex and enhanced convergence-driven upward motion, representing one of the primary dynamic causes. (5) During the initial warm-sector rainfall stage, numerical models substantially overestimated precipitation intensity. However, as the dominant pattern shifted to low-vortex-driven rainfall, effective forecast corrections could be achieved by considering factors such as the duration of the low vortex and enhanced moisture-dynamic conditions.

     

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