雷达回波风暴识别、追踪及外推算法的改进与评估

Improvement and Evaluation of Storm Identification, Tracking, and Extrapolation Algorithms Based on Radar Echo

  • 摘要: 对流风暴在发展过程中,其形状、大小等几何特征易发生显著变化,精确的风暴轮廓识别对正确判断相邻时次对流单体的关系至关重要。本文基于2021年5—10月成都新一代天气雷达多层反射率因子资料,在传统风暴单体识别、追踪及外推算法的基础上,改进风暴单体轮廓识别算法、风暴追踪匹配算法、风暴轮廓外推算法和风暴质心外推算法,并对改进后的算法进行评估。结果表明:与传统方法对比,新算法能够准确识别风暴单体的轮廓特征,从而提供更丰富细致的雷达回波特征信息;新算法通过引入风暴匹配指数,使风暴的追踪匹配过程更加精确与客观;在雷达回波外推预测过程中,新算法由于综合了风暴单体的轮廓、结构与质心位置等特征,实现了对风暴体移动路径、形状特征以及未来变化趋势更为精确的预测,在6~60 min预报时效中的平均预报误差距离降至2.74~3.11 km。

     

    Abstract: During the development of convective storms, their geometric characteristics, such as shape and size, are prone to significant changes. Therefore, accurate recognition of storm contours is crucial for correctly assessing the relationships between adjacent convective cells. Based on the multi-layer reflectivity factor data from Chengdu New Generation Weather Radar during May to October 2021, the traditional algorithms for storm cell recognition, tracking, and extrapolation were improved. Key improvements were made to the storm cell contour recognition, tracking matching, contour extrapolation, and centroid extrapolation algorithms. The performance of the improved algorithms was evaluated. Results show that compared to traditional methods, the proposed algorithm can accurately identify the contour features of storm cells, providing richer and more detailed radar echo characteristics. Furthermore, by introducing a storm matching index, the new algorithm enhances the accuracy and objectivity of the storm tracking matching process. For radar echo extrapolation forecasting, the new algorithm integrates characteristics such as the profile, structure, and centroid position of storm cells, enabling more precise predictions of the moving path, shape characteristics, and future trends of the storm body. The average prediction error distance was reduced to 2.7~3.11 km within the 6 to 60-minute forecast timeframe.

     

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