多单体强风暴影响下的一次极端强对流天气中尺度特征及触发机制

Mesoscale Characteristics and Triggering Mechanism of an Extreme Severe Convection under the Influence of Multi-cell Strong Storms

  • 摘要: 为进一步提高强对流天气预报能力,本文利用多源观测资料、ERA5再分析资料和数值模式资料,对2023年5月5日下午到夜间贵州省中北部一次多单体强风暴影响下的极端强对流天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:此次多单体强风暴是大气层结上干下湿、热力不稳定及强垂直风切变环境下产生的;雷达回波显示出结构密实且强度高的多个孤立对流单体,其中一个超级单体产生了极端雷暴大风和大冰雹,具有低层弱回波区、中高层回波悬垂、中气旋、高垂直液态水含量等中尺度特征,雷暴结构出现了雷暴前低压、雷暴高压;在双偏振雷达剖面上,观测到空中冰雹粒子下落及地,反射率因子快速下降,降水粒子重力拖曳、雨滴蒸发及冰雹融化作用导致地面极端大风;从对流触发机制看,水平辐合垂直方向随高度的积分M项大值中心和对流单体初生位置对应较好,对流触发主要为地面中尺度辐合线和850 hPa切变耦合作用;本次强对流天气主客观预报存在偏差,强化数值模式检验和评估,利用实况开展订正和定量化分析,可以有效提高预报精准度。

     

    Abstract: To further improve the forecasting capabilities for severe convection, with multi-source observational data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and numerical model outputs, a diagnostic analysis of an extreme severe convective event influenced by a multi-cell severe storm in the central and northern regions of Guizhou Province from the afternoon to the night of May 5, 2023 was conducted. The results indicate that the multi-cell strong storm developed under atmospheric conditions characterized by dry upper layers, moist lower layers, strong thermal instability, and significant vertical wind shear. Radar echoes revealed multiple compact and intense isolated convective cells, one of which evolved into a supercell that produced extreme thunderstorm winds and large hail, exhibiting mesoscale features such as a weak-echo region in the lower levels, an echo overhang in the mid-to-upper levels, a mesocyclone, and high vertical liquid water content. The storm structure also displayed a pre-storm low-pressure area and a thunderstorm high-pressure area. In dual-polarization radar cross-sections, the descent of hail particles to the ground and a rapid decrease in the reflectivity factor were observed. Surface extreme winds were primarily caused by the gravitational drag of precipitation particles, raindrop evaporation, and hail melting. Regarding the convective triggering mechanism, the maximum center of the vertically integrated horizontal convergence (M-term) correlated well with the initial locations of convective cells. The triggering was mainly due to the coupling of surface mesoscale convergence lines and the 850 hPa wind shear. Discrepancies existed between subjective and objective forecasts for this severe convective event. Strengthening the verification and evaluation of numerical models, along with applying corrections and quantitative analyses based on observations, can effectively enhance forecasting accuracy.

     

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