Fuzzy Verification Test of Probabilistic Forecast of Short-Term Heavy Precipitation

The fuzzy verification test of probabilistic forecast product of short-term heavy precipitation ?(≥20mm/h) have been carried out,which was generated by the probabilistic forecast model of short-term heavy precipitation. The results showed that: The “point to area” threat score of short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) probability forecast and the “point to area” threat score of maximum hourly precipitation (≥20mm/h) of SWC_WARMS model were both significantly higher than the “point to point” threat score,the short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) forecast results can be adjusted within the range of 30km-40km. When the probability of short-term heavy precipitation?(≥20mm/h) forecast was 30%,the threat score reached the maximum,and the Bias was close to 1,the forecast deviation was the minimum. The short-term heavy precipitation (≥20mm/h) probability forecast was more valuable than the maximum hourly precipitation (≥20mm/h) forecast of SWC_WARMS model.