Fine Guidance and Forecast of SCMOC Temperature in the Western Sichuan Plateau Quality Inspection and Analysis of the Affected Factors

By use of fine temperature guidance forecast SCMOC data of 13 stations in Aba county that takes a total of 730 days 08: 00 and 20: 00 from 2014 to 2015, comparing with the daily maximum (low) temperature, to predict the quality inspection.The results show that the maximum (low) temperature forecasting accuracy is in inverse proportion to the forecast effectiveness. The two predictions of the lowest temperature are higher than the maximum temperature, and the lowest temperature forecast accuracy has obvious seasonal variation.The daily minimum temperature has many negative errors from 08: 00, and the rest forecast of the highest (low) temperature has many positive errors. The daily minimum temperature forecast absolute error is related to the altitude.The sample analysis of that the absolute error is larger than 4℃ according to the highest (low) temperature prediction in 24 h shows that the temperature has obvious relation to the atmospheric stability and non-adiabatic process, the temperature deviation is caused by the precipitation and cold air range and intensity, cold and warm advection impact bias, trough strength and moving deviation and others.