CHEN Lianglv, DU Qin. Analysis on the Precipitation Forecast Performance of SWC-WARMS Model in Chongqing[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2016, 36(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184·2016.03.001
Citation: CHEN Lianglv, DU Qin. Analysis on the Precipitation Forecast Performance of SWC-WARMS Model in Chongqing[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2016, 36(3): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184·2016.03.001

Analysis on the Precipitation Forecast Performance of SWC-WARMS Model in Chongqing

  • Based on the 24h accumulated precipitation forecast data started at 8pm of the SWC-WARMS model and the CQMFS model and observation data from May to July in 2016,the performance of 24h accumulated precipitation forecast of both model are verified and compared,and the 24 ~ 48h heavy precipitation area and intensity forecast of the SWC-WARMS model of the eight heavy precipitation weather processes in Chongqing are verified. Result show that: for the 24 ~ 48h accumulated precipitation,the TS scores and PO scores of the CQMFS model are higher than that of the SWC-WARMS model,and the NH scores of the CQMFS model are lower than that of the SWC-WARMS model. For the 48 ~ 72h accumulated precipitation,the forecast performance of the SWC-WARMS model is much better than that of the CQMFS model. Taken as a whole,for the eight regional heavy precipitation weather processes in Chongqing,the heavy precipitation area and intensity forecast of the SWCWARMS model is good enough to benefit the weather forecaster,but the precipitation intensity is stronger overall and the vacancy rate of cloudburst is absolutely high.
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