The Verification of Precipitation Forecast for Southwest Region between SWCWARMS Model and GRAPES Model

Precipitation forecast from SWCWARMS model and GRAPES model are verified and compared by using 24 hour observation precipitation data from May to December in 2014 in southwest China．The verification results show that:according to the forecasting begin time at 08 AM，the ETS scores of SWCWARMS model expert 24h moderate rain grade and 48h heavy rain grade are higher than the GRAPES model，but SWCWARMS model have more empty forecast rate and system deviation; according to the forecasting begin time at 20 PM，the ETS and TS scores of SWCWARMS model are higher than those in GRAPES mode; the vacancy rate of SWCWARMS mode is slightly higher than that of GRAPES model except light rain score．From the verification of the ten southwest vortex in 2014，two model have better prediction ability to the strong rainfall process，the 24h precipitation verification of SWCWARMS model is better than GRAPES model in multiple times and multiple orders of precipitation magnitude．SWCWARMS model performs better than the GRAPES model in the flood season，SWCWARMS model has a strong ability of light rain，moderate rain and heavy rain prediction，but the heavy rainfall prediction ability needs to be improved，and SWCWARMS model has more precipitation vacancy rate to moderate rain and above level，and predict light rain missing more than GRAPES model．