Analysis of Lightning Forecast Effect Based on T639 Model Products

The paper applying lightning location data, using TS scoring method to inspect the lightning forecast products which based on T639 model products, draw the following conclusion:(1) The accurate rate of lightning forecast products increases with the forecast probability increase; (2) With the forecast period increased, the forecasting accuracy is reduced, but the overall changes very little; (3) Prediction probability at the age of 70%, the forecast accuracy rate can reach 75%, the overall effect of better prediction; (4) Prediction probability on plateau area is lower than plain area. compare to plain area, plateau area has poor effcet.