Analysis and Test of Numerical Prediction in Areal Precipitation

The analysis of 2007-2009 May-Oct T213, Germany and Japanese numerical models of average precipitation in Yalong river watershed 1-4 areas-namely, the areal precipitation reveals that differences of yes-no TS scores among the three modes are not obvious, and increase as the magnitude of precipitation levels up.Integrated multi-modes consensus prediction of areal precipitation is better than single mode, especially for light and moderate rainfall.Correlation coefficients of multi-mode prediction and reservoir inflow of Ertan are smaller than that of measured rainfall and the inflow, but they share the similar fluctuation tendency, still providing proper reference.