Study of Thunderstorm Forecast Method Based on Convection Parameter

Through the calculation for thunderstorm index from June to September 2006,select the nearest pin-point assimilational data.Select the well correlate and stable predictor in correlation method.Using Regression Estimation of Event Probability to analyze predictor,the thunderstorm prediction equation can be obtained.This method could be well in thunderstorm forecasts of the Xichang launch site in rainy season 2007.The forecast results show that thunderstorm index forecast method have the perfect practical application effect.