Verification of 2m Temperature Prediction of Grapes Model in Summer Season in Southwest China

Verifications of 2m temperature prediction by Grapes model in Southwest China during summer of 2004 and 2005 were under- taken. Results show that both daily and monthly mean prediction errors do not increase with forecast time going forward. Temperature prediction in most area of Sichuan basin are higher compared to the observation. The 02:00BJT temperature prediction is lower and the 14:00BJT temperature prediction is higer than observation in Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou and southern part of western Sichuan plateau. Temperature prediction in northern part of western Siehuan plateau and xizhang are lower compared to the observation. Analyses show that the unreal topography in model is one of the reason causing temperature errors and through regression analysis to temperature amendment is effective. Verification results in this paper provide some bases for improve the model and its product quality.