Prediction of Potential Distribution of Bactrocera Minax in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Based on the current 199 sites of the Bactrocera minax in China and 11 environmental variables, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current and future (2050s and 2090s) impact of this pest under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the 0.967 AUC of the model is good and reliable. The main environmental variables estimated by the Jackknife method are the mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), the annual precipitation (Bio12), the temperature annual range (Bio7), and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). In current, the suitable regions of Bactrocera minax are between 24.1°~34.6°N and 101.1°~122.9°E, and the highly suitable regions are mainly concentrated in Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Yunnan. Under the future climate scenarios, the potential suitable areas will increase significantly, expanding to the surrounding areas, the high altitude and latitude regions of Xinjiang, Shanxi and Tibet with a leap-forward trend and contracting to the east and west areas. The potentially suitable regions center will migrate to the northeast obviously with a higher radiation scenario. The suitable region will be the largest (1.6743 million km²) under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario in 2090s. Climate change is very beneficial to the spread of Bactrocera minax and threaten the ecological security of citrus producing in China. The main citrus producing provinces, especially the areas where Bactrocera minax have not been found, need to be vigilant and strengthen the predictions and prevention.