Research on Meteorological and Geological Disaster Warning in Zoige Based on Logistic Regression

Based on the hourly precipitation data of 12 regional automatic stations in Zoige and the daily precipitation data of ERA5-Land in European Centre, 77 meteorological geological disasters in Zoige from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed, and the early warning model of meteorological geological disasters in Zoige was constructed by means of correlation analysis and logistic regression. The results show that: (1) Most of the meteorological geological disasters in Zoige occurred from June to August, accounting for 88 % of the total, especially in July. (2) Zoige meteorological geological disasters mainly occurred in Qiuji Township, Axi Town, Baozuo Township in the Qiuji River Basin and Hongxing Town, Jiangzha Township, Zhanwa Township and Tiebu Town in the Bailong River Basin. (3) The meteorological geological disasters in Zoige were closely related to the effective precipitation in the first 15 days, and the correlation coefficient was as high as 0.6. (4) The logistic regression model with high prediction accuracy could be constructed by using the height difference, slope, distance from the river and the effective precipitation in the first 15 days, which could effectively predict the meteorological geological disasters in Zoige.