Research on Summer Strong Wind Forecast of Ziyang

Based on wind data in 51 weather stations of Ziyang,and high-altitude mapping materialsMICAPS data of MICAPS,the circulation characteristics of summer strong wind of Ziyang in 2011~2016 were discussed.Divided the circulation into 5 types,At the same time,it is found that the direction of strong wind is different under different types.By using the sounding data of MICAPS,analyzed the relevance between the each convective indexes and the summer strong wind of Ziyang in 2011~2016,as well as the range distribution features of each convective indexes under the strong wind and no strong wind condition.Firstly selected proper convective indexes and range,and built the strong wind predictive equation in June,July and August respectively through using the binary logistic regression,then selected the depression of the dew point as well as the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature difference at the high and low layer as the index so as to exclude the empty forecast.The forecast result tested in 2017 shows that this method has reference value for the forecast of summer strong wind within 12 hours in Ziyang.