The Product and Application of Short-time Strong Precipitation Probability Forecast Based on the Ingredient of EC025 Model Data

By using ECMWF high-resolution forecast data, the factors that affect the occurrence of short-time strong precipitation (SSP) are selected from five aspects of dynamics, thermodynamics, water vapor, unstable energy and precipitation forecast, the array of multi-dependent variable was constructed, and the ingredient coefficient and its threshold value of the forecasting factor were determined by principal component analysis (PCA). On the basis of this, the probability forecast product of SSP in Sichuan was developed. Since 2015, the forecasting application product has showed that the product has a significant impact on the SSP’s area of≥20 mm/h in the basin and above 10mm/h in the plateau of Western Sichuan.