Risk Assessment of the Mango Meteorological Disaster Factors in Panzhihua

Mango is an important dominant agricultural product in Panzhihua. The key stage of production is threatened by meteorological disasters such as low temperature, frost and high temperature. So it restricts the development of mango industry in Panzhihua. Based on the observation data of 4 meteorological stations in Panzhihua in recent 17 years, combined with local mango production meteorological disaster index, and using information diffusion theory analysis model, we estimated the probability distribution of different meteorological disaster threshold values of mango growing period in Panzhihua counties. The results showed that: Miyi County mango production suffered frost the biggest threat, 5 days frost weather over wintering period (daily lowest temperature 2℃) of about 5 years, florescence appear to adversely affect the daily maximum temperature is not higher than 15℃ the possibility of 60%. Renhe County mango flowering high disaster frequency is the largest, the flowering period is greater than or equal to 5 days the weather appeared high temperature (33℃ or highe) of about 2 years. Panzhihua mango flowering in the dry season, the rainy weather around the small, little rain and drought may restrict the growth of fruiting period. It is suggested that rational layout of mango production, agricultural risk management and control measures should be strengthened to carry out mango meteorological disaster agricultural insurance in Panzhihua, so as to lay the foundation for the risk transfer of mango production.