Prediction Performance Analysis of Chongqing Storm-Scale Ensemble Prediction System

In this paper, the prediction performance of the Chongqing Storm-scale Ensemble Prediction System is comprehensively analyzed by using the forecast data and corresponding observation data started at 8 am From August 1, 2017 to August31 st. Result show that: in the aspect of Precipitation forecast. The ensemble mean forecast and the probability matching mean forecast have obvious advantages over the control forecast. The TS score of light rain and moderate rain precipitation of ensemble mean is better than that of probability matching mean. The TS score of rainfall and rainstorm precipitation of probability matching mean is better than that of ensemble mean. The talagrand distribution of each forecast time show that the probability of falling in eleventh probability intervals is obviously higher than that of other probability intervals, it need to pay attention to future research and operation. The outlier score is between 0. 12 and 0. 26. In the aspect of precipitation probability forecast, the brier score and AROC of each precipitation magnitude are impressive. In general, the system shows a certain advantage over the single deterministic forecast in the precipitation forecast.