暖湿化背景下西藏地表感热通量时空变化特征及归因分析

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Attribution Analysis of Surface Sensible Heat Flux over Xizang under Warming and Moistening Conditions

  • 摘要: 基于CHEN-WENG感热系数方案,利用1981—2023年西藏38个气象站点观测资料,采用线性方程、R/S分析和逐步回归方法,分析近43 a西藏地表感热通量(Sensible Heat Flux,SH)的时空变化特征及影响因子。结果表明:(1)在空间分布上,西藏各地春、夏两季和全年平均SH呈经向型,秋、冬两季SH为纬向型。近43 a大部分站点春、秋、冬3季和年SH均呈增强趋势,夏季SH趋于减弱。(2)在时间尺度上,西藏平均SH月变化呈5月最大、12月最小的单峰型;季变化为春季最大、夏季次之、冬季最小。近43 a年SH呈“V”型变化,1981—1996年显著减弱(−3.33 W·m−2·(10 a)−1),1997—2023年显著增强(1.70 W·m−2·(10 a)−1),总体上呈弱的增强趋势(0.43 W·m−2·(10 a)−1)。夏季SH趋于减弱,其他3季SH倾向于增强,以冬季最显著。夏季平均SH在1980s最强,2000s最弱;其他3季和年平均SH均在1990s最弱,2010s最强。未来西藏夏季SH减弱趋势将持续,其他3季和年SH仍将保持增强趋势。(3)近43 a影响西藏年、季SH的主导气象因子均是地气温差,贡献率为68.6%~89.9%,以春季最小、冬季最大。转折前后对西藏年、季SH变化起主导作用的同样是地气温差,转折后地气温差的贡献率明显增大。气温升温率快于地温造成的地气温差减小是夏季SH减弱的主因;而气温升温率慢于地温引起的地气温差加大是春、秋、冬3季和年SH增强的主导因素。

     

    Abstract: Based on the CHEN-WENG sensible heat coefficient scheme and observational data from 38 meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2023, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of Sensible Heat Flux (SH) and its influencing factors over the past 43 years were analyzed using linear equation, R/S analysis and stepwise regression method. The results show that: (1) Spatially, the average SH in Xizang exhibited a meridional pattern in spring, summer, and annually, but a zonal pattern in autumn and winter. Over the past 43 years, SH of most stations showed an increasing trend in spring, autumn and winter, whereas it tended to weaken in summer. (2) Temporally, the monthly average SH in Xizang showed a single peak type with the largest in May and the smallest in December. The seasonal variation was highest in spring, followed by summer, autumn, and lowest in winter. Annual SH showed a V-shaped change over the past 43 years, which decreased significantly at a rate of −3.33 W·m−2·(10a)−1 from 1981 to 1996, and increased at a rate of 1.70 W·m−2·(10a)−1 significantly from 1997 to 2023, showing a weak increasing trend at a rate of 0.43 W·m−2·(10a)−1 in general. SH decreased in summer but increased in the other three seasons, especially in winter. The average SH in summer was strongest in the 1980s and weakest in the 2000s, while SH in the other three seasons and annually was weakest in the 1990s and strongest in the 2010s. In the future, the weakening trend of SH in summer in Xizang will continue, while SH in other three seasons and annual will continue to increase. (3) Over the past 43 years, the dominant meteorological factor affecting annual and seasonal SH in izang was the ground-air temperature difference, with contribution rates ranging from 68.6% to 89.9%, with smallest in spring and largest in winter. Before and after the turning point, the ground-air temperature difference also played a leading role in the annual and seasonal SH changes in Xizang, with its contribution increasing significantly after the turning point. The decrease in the ground-air temperature difference, caused by air temperature warming faster than ground temperature, was the main cause of weakened SH in summer. In contrast, the increase in the difference, caused by a lower air warming rate, was the dominant factor for enhanced SH in spring, autumn, winter, and annually.

     

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