基于风云卫星产品的一次宜宾强降水过程分析

Analysis of a Strong Precipitation Event in Yibin Based on Fengyun Satellite Products

  • 摘要: 利用地面资料、风云卫星资料,对宜宾2024年8月9日的强降水过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)黑体亮度温度(Black Body Temperature,TBB)低值区总体与降雨实况落区匹配度较高,指示意义较好;(2)湿度廓线(Humidity Profile Derived from Cloud Analysis,HPF)湿度增强起始位置及后续湿度扩大路径与降雨实况时空分布一致;(3)TBB值的急剧下降,可提前2~4 h作为短时强降水发生的有效预警指标;(4)在短时强降水事件出现时,小时雨强与TBB之间显示出较强的负相关性,但TBB值偏低并不必然导致短时强降水的出现;(5)定量降水估计(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation,QPE)的整体表现较降水率(Precipitation Estimation,PRE)更为优秀。

     

    Abstract: Using ground observation data, Fengyun satellite products and atmospheric circulation patterns, the heavy rainfall event in Yibin on August 9, 2024 is anaylzed. The results indicate that: (1) The low-value areas of Black Body Temperature(TBB)showed high spatial consistency with actual rainfall areas, demonstrating strong indicative significance for rainfall prediction. (2) The humidity enhancement starting position of Humidity Profile (HPF) and the subsequent humidity expansion path were consistent with the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. (3) A sharp drop in TBB values serves as an effective warning indicator for imminent short-duration heavy rainfall, offering a 2 to 4-hour lead time. (4) During the short-duration heavy rainfall event, hourly rainfall intensity exhibited a significant negative correlation with TBB. Howerver, low TBB values did not always predict heavy rainfall occurrence. (5) Quantitative Precipitation Estimation(QPE) performed better than Precipitation Estimation (PRE) in precipitation estimation.

     

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