龙美希, 陈桂琴, 张勇, 张亚萍, 邹倩, 黎中菊. 雷达估测降水与风暴尺度模式预报降水检验及分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2023, 43(4): 127-133. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2023.04.016
引用本文: 龙美希, 陈桂琴, 张勇, 张亚萍, 邹倩, 黎中菊. 雷达估测降水与风暴尺度模式预报降水检验及分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2023, 43(4): 127-133. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2023.04.016
LONG Meixi, CHEN Guiqin, ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Yaping, ZOU qian, LI Zhongju. Verification and Analysis of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and CQSSRAFS Precipitation Forecast[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2023, 43(4): 127-133. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2023.04.016
Citation: LONG Meixi, CHEN Guiqin, ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Yaping, ZOU qian, LI Zhongju. Verification and Analysis of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and CQSSRAFS Precipitation Forecast[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2023, 43(4): 127-133. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2023.04.016

雷达估测降水与风暴尺度模式预报降水检验及分析

Verification and Analysis of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and CQSSRAFS Precipitation Forecast

  • 摘要: 本文将局地分级平均校准法从单站雷达移用到组网雷达,选取SWAN组网雷达组合反射率因子产品与雨量站降水数据,计算了6次区域性暴雨天气过程的定量估测降水(Classified Quantitative Precipitation Estimation,CQPE),在对CQPE和SWAN小时定量降水估测产品(SWAN-QPE)进行站点检验的基础上,利用雨量站实测降水、CQPE对风暴尺度模式(CQSSRAFS)的降水预报产品进行检验评估。结果表明:(1)CQPE总体略偏弱,SWAN-QPE总体偏强,且从比率偏差(BIAS)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、相对误差(RAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、相关系数(CC)等评估检验参量看,CQPE均优于SWAN-QPE。(2)雨量站实测降水、CQPE对CQSSRAFS预报降水的检验结果是一致的。在时效上,该模式预报能力随预报时效的延长而减弱,尤其是第9个小时之后减弱更明显。在降水量级上,该模式预报能力随着降水量级的增大而减弱。相比于雨量站实测降水对CQSSRAFS预报降水的“点对面”检验,CQPE对其“面对面”的总体样本检验更具有代表性。

     

    Abstract: Based on the local classified average bias-adjusted algorithm, the Classified Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (CQPE) of six regional rainstorm occurred in Chongqing are calculated by using the data of SWAN-MCR and the surface rain gauges. On the basis of site inspection of CQPE and SWAN Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (SWAN-QPE). the precipitation forecast products of Chong Qing Storm-Scale Rapid Assimilation and Forcast System (CQSSRAFS) were tested and evaluated by using the surface rainfall data and CQPE. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) CQPE is slightly weaker and SWAN-QPE is stronger. From the evaluation test parameters, including ratio bias (BIAS), mean absolute error (MAE), relative error (RAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), CQPE is superior to SWAN-QPE. (2) The verification results of CQSSRAFS precipitation forecast are consistent with the measured precipitation at the rainfall station and CQPE. In terms of effectiveness, the performance of CQSSRAFS precipitation forecast weakens with the increase of forecast time, especially after the 9th hour. At the precipitation level, the prediction ability of CQSSRAFS decreases with the increase of precipitation level. Compared with the “point-to-face” test of CQSSRAFS forecast precipitation by the measured precipitation of the rainfall station, the overall sample test of CQPE on its "face-to-face" is more representative.

     

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