Using Sen trend analysis to analyze the variation characteristics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Tarim River Basin from 1999 to 2019. The Human Activity Intensity (HAI) characterization model, correlation analysis and standardized information flow were used to explore the impact of HAI and climate change on local vegetation in the Tarim River Basin.

The results showed that: (1) From the perspective of time change, the vegetation in the Basin had experienced three stages: recovery from 1999 to 2013, decline from 2014 to 2015, and re-recovery from 2016 to 2019. The vegetation growth was generally stable, and the NDVI growth trend was 0.03%/a. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the NDVI in the northern part of the Basin was larger than that in the south, and that in the west was larger than that in the east. The annual growth trend of NDVI in cultivated land and grassland area was between 0.02 % and 0.12 %. (2) NDVI in major agricultural areas was greatly affected by HAI, and cultivated land area and grassland area were the main driving factors. (3) The increase of temperature and precipitation were the main influencing factors affecting the vegetation growth in the northern and western mountainous areas of the Tarim River Basin, and the influence of wind speed and snowfall was weaker.