基于DEM的1983-2012年甘南州降水空间变化趋势及特征

Variations and Distribution of Precipitation of Gannan Based on DEM during the Period of 1983-2012

  • 摘要: 利用甘南州8个气象观测站1983~2012年30年标准气候整编资料的逐月降水数据,联合1:25万地理信息数据,根据山地气候学原理,运用线性回归、奇异谱分析多尺度分解、GIS技术和气候突变分析等方法,对甘南州1983~2012年降水量的变化趋势和突变特征进行分析。结果表明:近30a来甘南州年均降水整体呈现减少趋势,以6.3mm/10a趋势明显减少,存在12个月的主周期和6个月的次周期,1985年为降水量变化的突变年份,1997年和2002年降水量的减少趋势显著,超过0.05临界线。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly precipitation data of Gannan municipality during the period of 1963-2012,Combined with 1:25 million geographic information data,According to the principles of mountain climatology and the climate change trend was analyzed by using linear fitting method,singular spectrum analysis of multi scale decomposition,spatial interpolation and climate abrupt change. The result showed that the average of precipitation descended obviously with the rate of 6. 3mm /10 a over recent 30 years. There are cycles of main period is 12 months and 6 months. The climate abrupt change year is 1985 and especially in the year of 1997 and 2002,precipitation descended significantly,more than 0. 05 critical line.

     

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