四川地区降水幂律指数研究
Analysis of the Power-Law Exponent of Precipitation in Sichuan
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摘要: 基于四川地区5个站点1960~2004年的日降水观测资料,对其在等级分析的基础上探讨了幂律分布的规律,结果如下:(1)这5个站点日降水存在的一个共同特征—幂律尾分布,且不同等级的降水量对应不同的幂律尾指数,在一定程度上反映了不同雨型具有不同的气候背景和物理机理;(2)小雨幂指数随时间变化很小,中雨幂指数随时间变化较大,从80年代末期开始,四川盆地西部与南部地区中雨幂指数增加,中雨降水减少,川西高原、四川盆地东部与北部地区中雨幂指数减小,中雨降水增加。因此,中雨的变化可能会引起总降水量的变化。Abstract: The daily precipitation observational data of 5 stations of Sichuan from 1960 to 2004 are divided in sections,statistically and power-low distribution analyzed. The result shows that,(1) the daily precipitation of the five sites has a common feature-power-law distribution,and different levels of rainfall for different power-law exponent,to a certain extent,it reflects that the different rainfall patterns with different climate background and the physical mechanism;(2) the light rain exponent is changed very little over time,but the moderate power exponent is changed dramatically. Starting from the late=80,the moderate power in the south and west of Sichuan correspond to the reducing trend with the increase of the power-law exponent,and in the east and north and the plateau of Sichuan shows the trend of increase with the reducing of the power-law exponent. So the changes of total precipitation may be caused by the moderate power changes.