达州主城区暴雨强度总公式计算及对比分析

Calculation and Comparison Analysis of Rainstorm Intensity Formulas in Dazhou

  • 摘要: 本文根据达县站1961~2013年共53 a降水资料,采用年多个样法和年最大值法两种取样方式,用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布、指数分布和耿贝尔分布等三种曲线拟合样本,得到理论上的雨强-历时-重现期表(i-t-p三联表),再用最小二乘法和高斯牛顿法求解达州主城区的暴雨强度总公式参数,并对比分析了两种取样下总公式的计算结果。结果表明,年多个样法在低重现期明显高于年最大值法,而在高重现期高历时下,年最大值法则明显偏高。

     

    Abstract: Two rain intensity formulas are derived by different sampling methods,annual maximum value and annual multi-sampling method,based on 53 years rain data from 1961 to 2013; during the derivation process two steps are used to get the coefficients.Firstly,we employ three frequency distribution curves to fit the sample data and get the i-t-p table; secondly,least square method and Guass-Newton method are applied to derive relative coefficients on the basis of these tables.Results from comparison of this two equations show that the rainstorm intensity of annual maximum value method is higher that that of annual multi-sampling method in low return period.However when precipitation time is long,the rainstorm intensity of annual multi-sampling is much higher.

     

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