三种数值预报模式降水产品在西藏高原检验分析

Evaluation Analysis of Three Kinds of Numerical Forecast Model Precipitation Product in Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 本文利用西藏7个主要城镇2009年6~9月24h观测降水对T639、日本和德国三种数值预报模式降水产品进行了检验分析。结果表明:三种数值预报模式中,德国模式对晴雨预报准确率最高、空报率低。小雨量级上三种模式预报能力较强,偏差较小。三种数值预报模式对中雨量级预报能力明显减弱,预报量级明显偏小,其中德国和日本模式基本没有预报能力。综合三种数值预报模式降水对西藏北部那曲、东部林芝和昌都具有一定的参考意义。

     

    Abstract: The evaluation analysis of daily precipitation products derived from three numerical weather Forecasting models(T639,Japanese and German model) over the Tibetan Plateau is conducted using daily rainfall observation data in 2009 from June to September for 7 main towns in Tibet Autonomous Region(TAR) in this study.The result shows that the three kinds of numerical weather prediction model,the German model has some advantage for sunny/rainy forecasting abilities that compared to other models,vacancy rate is low.The forecasted rainfall amount of three models prediction ability Light rain is stronger,a small deviation.Three kinds of numerical weather prediction model of rain forecast is significantly weakened,the forecast magnitude The forecast magnitude too small,the German and Japanese mode basically no prediction ability.Integrated three kinds of numerical forecast model of precipitation has certain reference significance to the Nakchu in the north,Chamdo and Nyingtri in the east TAR.

     

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