儿童呼吸系统疾病与气象要素的关系及其预测

The Relationship Between Children Respiratory Disease with Meteorological Elements and Its Prediction

  • 摘要: 利用成都市金牛区妇幼保健院2012年1~12月和2013年7月~2014年6月的儿童呼吸系统疾病病例,与同期气象资料进行统计和分析。结果表明,成都地区儿童呼吸系统疾病具有明显的季节变化,11月和12月为高峰期,8月最少。儿童呼吸系统疾病发病与年龄呈反比,年龄越小,患病的几率越大;男童比女童更易患呼吸系统疾病。儿童呼吸系统疾病与气象要素有紧密的关系,并且气象要素对呼吸系统疾病发病的影响存在较明显的滞后性,冷空气影响是发病人数明显增多的主要原因之一。利用逐步回归法,分四个季节建立了呼吸系统疾病逐日发病人数的预报方程,并进行了等级划分,经预报检验,预报模式具有较好的预报能力。

     

    Abstract: Using the clinic data from a hospital in Chengdu and the atmospheric data during that period,the relationship between children respiratory disease and meteorological elements is analyzed.The results show that children respiratory disease has obvious seasonal variation,and the highest in November and December,the lowest in August.Children respiratory disease is inversely proportional to age,the younger,the risk of illness is greater.Boys are more susceptible to respiratory diseases than girls.Children respiratory disease and meteorological elements have close relationship,and meteorological elements have obvious lag on the incidence of respiratory diseases.The effect of cold air is one of the main reasons for incidence increased significantly.By stepwise regression method,the forecast equations are established for four seasons,and divide four grades.The forecast test indicates the forecast equations are good.

     

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