Abstract:
The paper applying lightning location data, using TS scoring method to inspect the lightning forecast products which based on T639 model products, draw the following conclusion:(1) The accurate rate of lightning forecast products increases with the forecast probability increase; (2) With the forecast period increased, the forecasting accuracy is reduced, but the overall changes very little; (3) Prediction probability at the age of 70%, the forecast accuracy rate can reach 75%, the overall effect of better prediction; (4) Prediction probability on plateau area is lower than plain area. compare to plain area, plateau area has poor effcet.