基于T639数值模式产品的雷电预报效果分析

Analysis of Lightning Forecast Effect Based on T639 Model Products

  • 摘要: 本文应用闪电定位资料,采用TS评分方法对基于T639模式产品的雷电预报产品进行检验,得出以下结论:(1)雷电预报产品的准确率随着预报概率的提高而增加;(2)随着预报时效的提高,预报准确率有所降低,但变化幅度较小;(3)预报概率在70%的时候,预报准确率可以达到75%,预报效果较好;(4)高原地区的雷电预报产品预报准确率较平原地区要低,预报效果相比而言较差。

     

    Abstract: The paper applying lightning location data, using TS scoring method to inspect the lightning forecast products which based on T639 model products, draw the following conclusion:(1) The accurate rate of lightning forecast products increases with the forecast probability increase; (2) With the forecast period increased, the forecasting accuracy is reduced, but the overall changes very little; (3) Prediction probability at the age of 70%, the forecast accuracy rate can reach 75%, the overall effect of better prediction; (4) Prediction probability on plateau area is lower than plain area. compare to plain area, plateau area has poor effcet.

     

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