基于成都天气雷达的一种有效降水估测方案

A Practical Method for Quantitative Rainfall Estimation Based on Weather Radar and Rain Gage Measurements in Chengdu

  • 摘要: 在基于天气雷达的定量降水估测(QPE)中,仰角选取和算法设计,对估测结果均有非常重要的影响。在对成都雷达资料进行滤波技术处理,减轻孤立噪声和杂波的干扰基础上,建立基于动态a、b值的降水估测算法,分析成都雷达探测所涉及的地形因素,提出了高山规避方案,并通过对流性和稳定性层状降水过程的高山规避实验表明,平均相对误差(RE)分别降低14.5%和10.8%;结合3次不同类型(对流性、稳定性层状和混合性)降水过程的雷达探测和雨量观测资料,基于0.5~3.5km区间的7个等高面的反射率因子进行降水估测实验显示,基于0.5km高度的反射率因子进行的降雨估测,平均相对误差综合指标最优;通过对2009~2010年主要降水过程的统计分析表明,降低QPE检验样本比例可以提高QPE精度;通过对2008~2009年主要过程QPE误差与雨强的关系实验表明,该算法对5mm以上实况降水的估测效果更好,相对误差为35.7%。

     

    Abstract: Elevation angle and algorithm design have important influence to the quantitative rainfall estimation of the weather radar. This paper puts forward a dynamic ab value based quantitative rainfall estimation algorithm. And according to the analysis of terrain nearby Chengdu, this paper comes up with mountain avoidance method. Experiments on application of Convective precipitation and Stratiform precipitation indicate that, the average relative error decreased by 14. 5% and 10. 8%respectively. Experiments on Reflectivity factor of 7 contour planes with different height in 0. 5~3. 5km section by using Convective precipitation, Stratiform precipitation and mixed precipitation with rain gage measurement data shows that, average relative error at 0. 5km are optimal. Quantitative rainfall estimation experiments on precipitation processes of 2008 and 2009 shows better result when the precipitation amounts larger than 5. 0mm, and the average relative error is 35. 7%。

     

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