Abstract:
Based on the data of daily maximum temperature during 1960~2009 that recorded by the 96 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin, the reanalysis data of ECWMF and the data of ECWMF Numerical Prediction Models, temporal and spatial features were studied in detail and the numerical prediction model forecast were concluded which based on 25 heat waves during 1979-2009. The results show that, the heat waves appears mainly from July to August; REOF show that the heat waves in Sichuan Basin have three anomalous area (Western part, Eastern part and Middle part). At the 100 hPa the south asia high is located farther east, meanwhile Mongolia, most of China and south of Russia were controlled by positive anomalies; there are three circulation patterns (Tibetan High, West Pacific Ocean Subtropical High and high-pressure belt) at the 500 hPa. The numerical prediction model forecast including follows:1) at the 500 hPa Sichuan Basin control by Tibetan High or West Pacific Subtropical High or Zonal High, and geopotential height greater than 5840 m, meanwhile the Tibetan High and West Pacific Subtropical High must reached 5880 m, and Sichuan Basin have a anticyclone; 2) temper at the 850 hPa greater than 24℃ and sustainable 3 days.