黄河中上游8月旱涝变化及环流异常特征

Variations in August Droughts and Floods in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Yellow River and Characteristics of Circulation Anomalies

  • 摘要: 利用黄河中上游43站1961~2006年8月降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了黄河中上游8月降水的时空分布及其相关的环流异常特征。结果表明:(1)该区8月降水总体呈弱下降趋势,60年代后期到70年代初期、70年代后期到80年代初期、90年代初期到中期为偏涝期,80年代中后期及2003年以后正常,其他时期偏旱。(2)该区8月降水的前3种空间分布模态为:全区一致型、西北-东南差异型、中间型。根据REOF可进一步细分为渭河平原区、宁夏区、河套北部区和青藏高原区,各区降水趋势存在明显差异。(3)该区8月旱涝变化与700hPa风场上新地岛以西的气旋式环流的位置、西北气流与西南气流的交汇位置、西太平洋反气旋环流的强度和位置以及青藏高原气旋式环流的强度密切相关;高度场上与500hPa西太平洋副热带高压的强度和位置、100hPa南亚高压的强度和位置以及这两层上贝加尔湖至鄂霍次克海的高压脊的强度、乌拉尔山以东的长波槽的强度关系密切;200hPa纬向风场上,东亚副热带高空急流的强度、风速切变的大小、急流轴有无断裂以及东西风零线的位置影响黄河中上游区域旱涝的异常变化。

     

    Abstract: In order to analyze the space-time distributions and the characteristics of its circulation anomalies of August precipitation in the upper and middle reaches of Yellow River (UMRYR),the study were conducted based on the August precipitation data at 43 stations from 1961 to 2006 over UMRYR and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The results show that:1) The August precipitation of UMRYR has a slight downtrend overall.The partial flood periods are late 60's to early 70's,the late 70's to the early 80's and the early 90's to the middle.The middle and late 80's and after 2003 are normal periods,the others are partial drought periods.2) The August precipitation in UMRYR can be respectively divided into three types of spatial distribution:regional consistent distribution,northwest-southeast opposite distribution and middle distribution.Based on REOF method the August precipitation in UMRYR can be further divided into four areas:Weihe plain area,Ningxia area,Hetao northern area and Qinghai-Tibet plateau area,among which significant differences exist in the precipitation trend.3) Factors in 700hPa wind field,which are closely associated with the drought and flood variations in August in UMRYR,are the position of cyclonic circulation on the west of Novaya Zemlya,the intersection position of the northwest and southwest airflow,the intensity and position of western Pacific anticyclonic circulation and the intensity of qinghai-tibet plateau cyclonic circulation;the variations are also closely related to the intensity and position of West Pacific Subtropical High on 500hpa,the intensity and position of the South Asian High on 100hpa and the intensity of pressure ridge from Okhotsk to Lake Baikal,the intensity of long-wave trough on the east of Ural Mountains on both of 500hpa and 100hpa;The intensity of East Asia subtropical upper-level jet streams,the strength of wind shear,the continuity of the jet axes and the position of zero line are also important reasons for the drought-flood anomalies in UMRYR in 200hPa zonal wind field.

     

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