塔吉克斯坦百年气温变化趋势分析

Climate Warming Trend of Tajikistan in the Past 100 Years

  • 摘要: 利用塔吉克斯坦百年气温资料,运用一元回归分析法、Kri西ng空间差值法、非参数检验方法的Mann—Kendall趋势检验和突变检验法以及小波分析法,进行了气温变化的趋势分析。结果表明:1)在时间变化上,塔吉克斯坦过去百年平均气温总体呈现增加趋势,其中1901~1908年和1915~1960年为变冷期,1909~1914年和1961—201 1年为变暖期;四季气温总体都有增温,同时也都呈现冷暖交替变化但最后变暖的趋势,其中冬季气候变暖趋势最为明显;四季的平均气温和年平均气温都存在气温突变并在突变后呈现了显著的增温趋势;春季和夏季都有27a的准变化周期,秋季存在12a为准变化周期,冬季存在20a的准变化周期,年平均气温以24a为准变化周期;2)空间变化上,在1901—1960年,塔吉克斯坦大部分地区都呈现降温趋势,在1961—2011年,大部分地区则呈现增温趋势,其中1931~1960年的降温最明显,1991—2011年的增温趋势最明显。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly air temperature data,temperature change trend were analyzed by applying linear regression,Kriging spatial interpolation method,non—parametric test 1 trend test and mutation test of Mann—Kendal method and wavelet analysis method for the period of 1901—2009 for the Republic of Tajikistan,The results showed that:1)From the tem. poral change perspective,the mean annual air temperature increased significantly during the last 100 years,with a cooling peri— od from 1901 to 1908 and from 1915 to 1960 and a warming period from 1909 to 1914 and from 1961 to 201 1,The mean air temperature of four seasons all had a wanning trend and alternated between cooling period and warming period but finally with warming trend,especially warming stronger in winter.Annual mean average temperature of four seasons and annual mean air temperature temperature had the abrupt changes and showed a significant increasing trend after it.The annual mean temperature and the mean temperature of spring,summer,autumn and winter had a 27a,27a,12a,20a and 24a prospective change cycle, respectively.2) From the spatial change perspective,the cooling trend(1901~1960) and the warming trend(1961~2011) presented in almost complete aera of Tajikistan,and had a significant increasing and decreasing change in 1931~1960 and 1991~201 1,respectively.

     

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