Abstract:
AREM and GRAPES are served as quasi-operational models in Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Bureau.Verification of their performance in 2010 showed that they all got dissatisfactory Ts scales in rainfall prediction.More inspection and analysis revealed that the both models predicted low vortex systems,such as Southwest Vortex weaker in intensity compared with the observation,resulting directly in a lessened rainfall prediction as well as a decreased wind and vapor convergence.Also,the two models predicted less relative humidity.The two models aggrandized the contribution of local vapor,by contraries,undervalued vapor transportation from outside,especially model AREM.It adjusted improperly vapor in the middle troposphere,one of the main reason of failure in rainfall prediction for later 24h.Checked up by the sounding data,GRAPES had an obvious and systematical error above 250hPa,namely,higher than observation.